I'm Pete du Pont with the National Center for Policy Analysis. Are we headed for a recession? The answer is, your guess and mine are as good as anybody's.
As NCPA Chief Economist Barry Asmus likes to say, "Economists are good at predicting recessions. They've predicted eight of the last three."
But we shouldn't be too hard on economists. The very nature of a dynamic, innovative, free economy dictates against accurate predictions. Recessions happen, and if there were a magic bullet to kill them, we wouldn't know when to shoot it. The 1991-92 recession was over before the 1992 election, but that wasn't officially determined until after Clinton beat Bush – largely on the economy.
And just to make it that much more complicated, this isn't the economy of the past. Don't let the recent dotcom disasters fool you; communication and technology have had a major, lasting effect on the economy.
So can we do anything? Sure, we can pass George W.'s tax cut, and the fed can cut interest rates. But is a recession coming? Maybe. Maybe not. Stay tuned.
Those are my ideas, and at the NCPA we know ideas can change the world. I'm Pete du Pont. Next time, bad schools burn money.